The done South West... all hopes are on the North East!

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This time the Southwest Monsoon season is severely deficient in rainfall, regional Variations in rainfall resulted in problems such as insufficient soil moisture for irrigation. On the other hand, the effect of El Nino will continue until early next year. In such a situation, can the rains brought by the northeast monsoon during October-December fill the reservoirs, increase soil moisture and provide water for the winter crops (rabi)? The question arises.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) report, the country received 759.4 mm of rainfall during June-September this year. Rainfall is recorded. Long term average rainfall is 868.6 mm. Meanwhile, this time there was a shortage of 12.6 percent. 76 percent of South India's normal rainfall; Only 74 percent was recorded in East and North East India. Rainfall has been recorded at the rate of 94 percent in North-West and 97 percent in Central India. These national and regional averages are rough and do not reflect district-level differences.

What is the impact on crops?

El Nino causes unusually warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Changes in the circulation of winds and moisture occur in the atmosphere. This reduces the accumulation of moisture in some parts of India and leads to weakening of the southwest monsoon. When and where rainfall occurs depends on low pressure systems during the monsoon season, internal changes in the monsoon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and regional wind circulation. Depending on the direction and strength of the IOD, changes in the El Nino factor may intensify or diminish. The IMD has predicted neutral IOD conditions during October-December. Meanwhile, American National Oceanic and Atmospheric Research Institute 'Nova' has reported that there is more than 90 percent chance of severe El Niño conditions from January-March next year. According to this, 19.34 percent of the surveyed area across the country is under severe agricultural rainfall. Another 55.6 percent area is slightly deficient in moisture. It should not be taken as an indication of yield loss as it only reveals the conditions prevailing at the time of observation. In Andhra Pradesh, 74.1 percent of the surveyed area is under severe rainfall. It is 40.3 percent in Tamil Nadu, 38.1 percent in Karnataka and 24.4 percent in Telangana. This does not mean that thirty-fourth of the crops in Andhra Pradesh have been lost, nor is the situation the same in October. However, this report suggested that field level observations and inspections should be carried out immediately in Prakasam, Annamaiya and Palnadu districts. Climate drought and agricultural drought are not the same thing. Deficit rainfall refers to reduced rainfall. Agricultural drought depends on the scarcity of soil moisture, condition of crops and availability of irrigation facilities.

According to the Agriculture Department's September report, 1,086.31 lakh hectares of Kharif crops were sown. This is 17.69 lakh hectares less than the same time last year. Mainly paddy area decreased while pulses area increased. However, it cannot be said that the lack of rainfall is directly responsible for the reduction in grain yield. The water needs of coastal areas that receive water through canals, rain-fed and low-lying areas are different. Crop damage can be minimized if the crop is supplied with available water. Farmers who want to cultivate Rabi should be provided with comprehensive information about soil moisture, upcoming rains and selection of seeds. Its impact on water depends on the area of rainfall, intensity of rainfall and consumption. However, if groundwater is pumped excessively to protect crops temporarily, they will fail badly in the future. So drinking water security and livestock water needs should be included in the district level plans.

Positive for some areas

IMD estimates say that most parts of the country may receive less than normal rainfall between October and December. However, there are positive signs for some parts of South and North-West India. Tamil Nadu-Puducherry-Karaikal, Coastal Andhra-Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala-Mahe, South Interior Karnataka are likely to receive 88-112 percent of LPA rainfall. Northeast Monsoons are crucial for replenishing water bodies and increasing soil moisture in South India. During El Nino, sometimes good rains fall in the Southeast Peninsula. On the other hand, we have to deal with low pressures, rains and floods in the Bay of Bengal. Temperatures may remain above normal in most parts of the country by next March-May. State governments should be alert in these situations. In the coming months comprehensive monitoring should be undertaken linking rainfall, crops and water use. Rainfall and sun intensity should be recorded. Advice should be given to Rabi growers keeping in view the storage of reservoirs, ponds and ground water levels. Special attention should be given to rain fed irrigation and areas with less irrigation. There is a possibility of heavy rain due to low pressure in Bay of Bengal. Therefore, adequate preparation is required to prevent drought disaster as well as precautionary drought management.