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Analysis

Aung San Suu Kyi's election victory as a vicious cycle by the Myanmar military Almost five years have passed since the takeover. Now the military government has decided not to hold elections. These will take place from December 28 to January 2026. The army is trying unsuccessfully to legitimize its own power through these elections. But the already anarchic situation in the country is likely to worsen with this election.

Many parties, including the main political party NLD (National League for Democracy), are not contesting the election announced by the military rulers. Suu Kyi, a symbol of Myanmar's democratic aspirations, was jailed by the military government and disqualified from participating in the election process. In protest, her party NLD refused to register as a political party under the new law. As a result, the military rulers dissolved the party. 

NLD led by Suu Kyi won the 2020 election. According to the constitution promulgated by the military government in 2008, 25 percent of the 476 seats in both houses of the national parliament are reserved for the military. The pro-military nationalist party Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) suffered a death blow in that election.  Suu Kyi has promised the people of the country in the 2020 election that she will complete the process of democratic restoration that started five years ago and will amend the constitution to facilitate that. So, everyone thought Suu Kyi would cut the tail of the army as soon as she took the reins. But that didn't happen. The army mutinied as new members were preparing to take oath. Power has been seized.

Unsuccessful Army
Thousands of pro-democracy protesters were jailed by the military government. They bombed their own citizens. Village after village was burned. It is not even known exactly where Suu Kyi was detained. Even after doing this, the army could not gain control over the country. Pro-democracy militias and armed struggle organizations are fighting with the army in many areas. It is not possible to hold elections in those areas.

The pro-democracy movement that erupted in Myanmar in the name of 'Spring Revolution' has decided to completely defy the army. Armed resistance organizations such as the People's Defense Forces, affiliated to the National Unity Government (NUG), became part of it. NUG declared itself as the real government of the country. It is run by leaders operating from anonymity or exile. However, the pro-military USDP wins in the majority of seats. It supports military rulers.

Security problem for India
There are reports that India has prepared EVMs for this election. India's Ministry of External Affairs made a statement without mentioning the issue: 'India supports Myanmar's transition to democracy. Participation of all political parties is critical to the credibility of the electoral process. India will continue to support all efforts to promote peace, dialogue and restoration of normalcy in Myanmar."

India knows that many political parties are not participating in elections and these are not free and inclusive elections. Even if these elections do not restore democracy, at least they can show a political solution to the violence there. 1,643 km to India along four northeastern states with Myanmar. There is a line of demarcation. Whatever happens in that country will affect us.

After the military coup, thousands of soldiers belonging to the opposition faction fled to Mizoram state as refugees. Border villagers in Mizoram had to run to safer places when military rulers bombarded Chin state. Moreover, the Myanmar Army is working with insurgent groups in the northeastern states of the Sagaing region (Myanmar) to fight pro-democracy groups. This is a security issue for India. The India-Myanmar-Thailand tripartite road project also remained incomplete due to the unrest in Myanmar.

Milkless India
To put it bluntly, India has established relations with the brutal military rulers of Myanmar, risking our respect for democracy. How much benefit did it get? Why is this policy being followed even while blaming the Myanmar infiltrators for the unrest in Manipur? Recently, India is building a strong fence along the Myanmar border. India is repeating the mistake of the British rulers who once separated thousands of families, villages and tribes by building a fence along the Durand Line in Afghanistan. China, on the other hand, has used tribal people to protect its own mining and infrastructure projects. In return, it provided arms to the military rulers.  

Finally, India has woken up now. Prajasyamya is holding discussions with cool movement groups. It allowed them to work without outcry from the country. It is known how many dream results. The thread of this election is similar to the referendum conducted by General Pervez Musharraf to become the President of Pakistan. The challenges facing India and China's growing influence in that country will continue like this. 'Act East' will remain a dream.

Nirupama Subramanian
Writer Senior Journalist